CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2007
| Author | Varabei, Iryna Vasilyevna |
|---|---|
| Title | Macroeconomic Effects of the Recent Oil Price Shocks in CEE Net Oil Importing Countries |
| Summary | The paper studies the effects of oil price shocks on real economy of ten net oil importing CEE countries. In particular, I focus on the relationship between oil prices and GDP growth which is analysied by multivariate Vector Autoregressive Model. I find evidence of non-linear effects of oil price shocks on real economic activity for most of the countries with oil price increases having greater negative impact in terms of magnitude than that of oil price decreases. However, the shocks themselves are found to be statistically significant only in few cases. From the Granger Causality analysis I conclude that oil prices have direct or indirect impact on real activity in all the countries but Croatia, Poland and Romania. An increase in oil prices is found to have a negative effect on the GDP growth in the short-term for all the countries under study. The results from different specifications for individual countries show that the largest accumulated loss of GDP growth after a positive oil price shock is reached in the Czech Republic while the accumulated gain in GDP growth is found for Estonia, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania. The surprising result of a positive impact of the shock for some countries can be explained by relatively low dependence of these countries on imported oil and the mitigating effect of the other macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the structure of the economy and the success of transition reforms also matter for the significance of the impact of oil price shocks. |
| Supervisor | Attila Ratfai |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2007/c05vai01.pdf |
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