CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2009
| Author | Novikova, Aleksandra |
|---|---|
| Title | Carbon dioxide mitigation potential in the Hungarian residential sector |
| Summary | The dissertation studies the ways of assessing the potential and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation in energy using sectors. It applies this knowledge to develop a model for estimating the potential for carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation and associated costs resulting from the application of energy efficient technologies and practices, as well as the use of fuel switch options at the point of energy demand, in the residential sector of Hungary. Currently such information is identified as a gap in knowledge whereas it is the key for designing evidence-based climate mitigation policies. The research relies on extensive literature review on approaches to energy system assessment and related techniques; literature review and interviews with local expects on technological opportunities for CO2 mitigation and their applicability to the Hungarian residential buildings; and a created database of the main efficient and low-carbon options available in the market. The research tool developed is a bottom-up spreadsheet-based model which allows estimation of the baseline final energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the Hungarian residential buildings and individual and cumulative incremental assessment of mitigation options in terms of their potential for CO2 emission reduction and associated costs in 2025. The dissertation identifies a wide range of opportunities for cost-effective CO2 mitigation available in all types of the Hungarian residential buildings studied. Its key conclusion is that the application of cost-effective measures result in a reduction of c. 29% of the sectoral baseline CO2 emissions in 2025, whereas the total technical potential possible to achieve with the implementation of all investigated measures is c. 50% of these baseline emissions. The realization of the cost-effective potential requires a total investment of 9.6 billion EUR from 2008 to 2025, but results in energy cost savings of 17.1 billon EUR. Efficient lighting and heating and water-flow controls were identified as the most attractive measures in the Hungarian residences in terms of cost-effectiveness. A fuel switch to low-carbon heating solutions and the improvement of the thermal envelope in old buildings present the largest potential. The results of the research suggest the technological options to be prioritized with national mitigation policies and present the investment required to realize the mitigation potential. The results may help to establish the national targets for greenhouse gas reduction in the climate binding commitments. If realized, the associated reduction in the energy consumption of households could help reduce the social tension in Hungary caused by the recent growth of energy bills. This effect would add to numerous environmental and economic co-benefits of CO2 mitigation. Research results may be replicated for countries with similar climate and economic conditions. |
| Supervisor | Urge-Vorsatz, Diana |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy PhD |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2009/ephnoa01.pdf |
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