CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2010
| Author | Rodina, Kristina Sergeyevna |
|---|---|
| Title | The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system: formation, functions and future water management scenarios |
| Summary | The current development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS), which is one of the remarkable examples of the human-induced ecosystems, depends on numerous political and environmental factors. On the one hand, the political tensions and disagreements between Central Asian republics alter the implementation of the coordinated water policy in terms of agreed water discharges to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes. On the other hand, forecasting change of the regional climate has an uncertain influence on these lakes. In accordance with a level of regional cooperation between republics and significance of climate change, future of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes can be described by the various development scenarios. In order to achieve the main goal of the study which is identification of the most probable scenario of the AALS future development, a set of various water management scenarios has been elaborated, namely, “Ready for Challenge”, “Fall Behind”, “Promising Future”, and “Business as Usual”. Then, the AALS model aimed to test these scenarios has been created using STELLA software. Finally, the model created has been simulated for each water management scenario and results illustrating the change of the AALS volume in 2010-2040 have been obtained. It was found that two of the elaborated scenarios, i.e. “Ready for Challenge” and “Promising Future” are unrealistic for the AALS development whereas another two, i.e. “Fall Behind” and “Business as Usual” stand big chances of being illustrative for the lakes’ future. |
| Supervisor | Mnatsakanian, Ruben |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2010/rodina_kristina-sergeyevna.pdf |
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