CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2011
| Author | Korytarova, Katarina |
|---|---|
| Title | Energy efficiency potential for space heating in Hungarian public buildings. Towards a low-carbon economy. |
| Summary | Impacts of climate change as well as depletion of energy sources and disruptions in energy supply call for significant energy savings as well as greenhouse gas emission reductions. According to IPCC buildings provide large mitigation potential at low costs, especially in economies in transition and developing countries. The aim of the dissertation is to determine energy savings potential for space heating in public buildings in Hungary, one of the economies in transition. The dissertation also aims to assess risks of suboptimal retrofit applied at a large scale and to estimate the related “lock-in effect”. The potential is determined based on two types of modelling approaches: first, a well-established component-based approach where the potentials of individual more efficient building components are summed up through supply curve method; and second, a rather novel, performance-based approach. The risks and opportunities as well as the lock-in effect are examined in through scenario analysis, which is based on the performance-based model. The results of the comparison of the results of the two modelling approaches, first of its kind in time of writing, shows significant difference between the potential determined by component- and performance-based approach. This comparison also shows that the performance-based approach is a flexible modelling tool. The calculation of the potential in both approaches is based on average specific heating energy requirements for eight types of public buildings, based on a set of energy audits conducted in Hungarian municipal buildings. Scenario analysis implies that although the rate of retrofit is important in determining the total potential, it is the level of energy performance the buildings are retrofitted, which is detrimental to the size of the potential. The analysis shows that if the existing public building stock is retrofitted at an accelerated rate but only partially, the resulting potential will be only slightly higher than if buildings are retrofitted to the level of high-performance buildings at a natural rate of retrofit, requiring much higher investment. Moreover, gradual retrofit to passive house standard at natural rate of retrofit leaves more room for further renovation even after 2030 and thus the resulting energy savings in 2050 would be higher. Further, if passive energy standard is gradually applied to the whole building stock, several times higher energy savings can be reached than if the partial retrofit is applied to the same building stock. The difference between these two cases, the lock-in effect, accounts for about 44% of the 2030 baseline energy consumption. This amount will be locked-in for several next decades if suboptimal retrofit is supported on a large scale. Thus, in order to use the public funds most effectively, high-performance retrofit should be preferred to suboptimal retrofit at a large scale. |
| Supervisor | Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy PhD |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2011/korytarova_katarina.pdf |
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