CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2012
| Author | Nemeth, Adam |
|---|---|
| Title | Local Government Budgeting in Hungary Assessment of Quantitative Techniques for Local Business Tax Forecasting in Cities with County Status |
| Summary | This thesis analyzes local government budgetary forecasting in cities with county status in Hungary. Discrepancies within the decentralized governance system call for initiating state-of-the-art local managerial approaches. Current budget forecasts techniques are solely based on expert judgments. Major findings of his thesis include that municipal tax revenue forecasts are volatile and inaccurate. Moreover, these forecasts systematically underestimate tax revenues. Four quantitative models were analyzed with respect to the possibility of introducing them. Two types of trend analyses were found inaccurate, but time series and multivariate regression models could be considered to be used by local forecasters in order to assist their budgetary process. |
| Supervisor | Jokay, Karoly |
| Department | Public Policy MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2012/nemeth_adam.pdf |
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