CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2013
| Author | Peralta, Adjani Antonela |
|---|---|
| Title | The implications of climate change on public health: Water resources in the Ural River Basin |
| Summary | Conceptual frameworks of public health assessment should address the needs of policymakers, government institutions and populations as well as account for potential climate change. Water is an important factor influencing public health in the Caspian region. The five Caspian states focus their water resource management programs on water availability and sanitation, but academics and international institutions emphasize the need to relate public health with ever-changing environmental gradients. The study analyzed how climate change affects water availability in the Ural River Basin and possible migration strategies for public health in the region. There is insufficient data for the area, so extensive data collection was conducted including a GRID-Arendal research trip. The research project creates an integrated database of both climate and health variables for the Ural River Basin. To assess the effects of climate change on public health, the study develops an Arc-GIS SWAT model, a STELLA conceptual diagram and analyzes the area’s public health infrastructure. The developed SWAT model evaluates three climate change scenarios and concludes that water availability will decrease by 1.5-6.9% by 2049 depending on the scenario. For each of these scenarios the study evaluates the corresponding consequences for public health in the region, assesses available health infrastructure’s readiness for changes and develops policy recommendations to help mitigate climate change’s impact on public health. Russia and Kazakhstan need to drastically improve access to health care facilities and medical professionals. The overall scheme and methodological framework developed by this research project can be applied to other watersheds. |
| Supervisor | Viktor Lagutov |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2013/peralta_adjani.pdf |
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