CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2013
| Author | Zubkou, Aleh |
|---|---|
| Title | The 2009 IMF Stand-By Arrangement with Belarus -- why not a success? |
| Summary | The thesis analyses the 2009 IMF Stand-By Arrangement with Belarus – how successful it has been in assisting the balance of payments adjustment and how appropriate the program was in its design. By tracking the evolution of the balance of payments concept and the IMF role in its adjustment, together with the recent economic developments in Belarus, the thesis reveals the structural character of the country's balance of payments crisis and answers the questions of to what extent the characteristic features of Belarus' balance of payments crisis were factored into the program design and how proposed by the Fund macroeconomic adjustment and structural reform were intended to achieve the stated goal. By scrutinizing the Fund's statements, reviews and reports, analyzing statistical data on Belarus' macroeconomic performance and juxtaposing it with the initially programmed outcomes, the thesis answers the questions of how successful was the IMF program and what external and domestic factors determined the ambiguous progress Belarus made towards its external sustainability. It appears that despite generally positive tone of the official declarations, the SBA under review was quite far from being successful, while Belarus' current account deficit – the initial focus of the program and therefore the main assessment criterion of its effectiveness – widened further. Moreover, despite promising initiatives Belarus has not met several structural reform benchmarks, in particular, for privatization, financial sector reform and price liberalization, which are essential for the country's long term external sustainability and competitiveness. These can be explained by both stronger than expected influence of external shocks and disregarded by the Fund specifics of Belarus' economic model and political regime. |
| Supervisor | Horvath, Julius |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2013/zubkou_aleh.pdf |
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