CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2014
| Author | Baubekova, Aziza |
|---|---|
| Title | Integrated Modeling in support of Transboundary Water Cooperation in Central Asia: Ili-Balkhash watershed |
| Summary | There is a concern that the Lake Balkhash can repeat the fate of the Aral Sea. In order to verify this assertion an integrated model of the transboundary Ili – Balkhash watershed was done. Climate change and socio-economical changes were assessed for the level of influence on the lake system. The analysis is based on the use of GIS techniques and remote sensing as well as literature review. Nine main scenarios were developed including climatic, economic and combined sets. An initial scenario showed that the Lake Balkhash is actually drying and current system is unstable. The best or 4.5 scenario that provided favorable conditions for the water regime has showed the only positive result and increase of water level. But this scenario is not realistic as finding of this study indicated the rapid economic growth in the near future due to population increase. Therefore, combined p4.5 scenario was found more feasible. Under this scenario lake volume gradually fell but did not exceed the minimum level. The worst scenario (r8.5) showed the complete loss of the lake in fifteen years. Despite the fact that this last scenario is based on the maximum values and implies dramatic changes in the climate conditions and economic activities it is still possible to happen. Therefore, countries were recommended not only to examine current watershed management strategy and come to consensus on the Ili river water use limits but also to reconsider energy strategy and consumer behavior of the local population. |
| Supervisor | Lagutov, Victor |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2014/baubekova_aziza.pdf |
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