CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2015
| Author | Mitkov, Zlatin |
|---|---|
| Title | CIVIL WAR AFTER THE ARAB SPRING: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SYRIA, LIBYA, AND YEMEN |
| Summary | In the post-cold war period there has been an unprecedented and undeniable drive by countries towards democratization. Nevertheless, civil wars have not stopped and remain the most costly and dangerous threat for much of the world’s regions. For this reason, this study focuses on the relationship between institutions, grievances, greed during anti-regime campaigns, political transitions and the onset of civil war. The research is done through the lenses of the variables and mechanisms specified in Mansfield and Snyder’s democratization theory, Collier’s and Hoeffler’s Greed (opportunity model), and Gurr and Cederman’s work on the Grievance theory. The applied methods are: the theory-guided process tracing method - TGPT combined with a cross-case comparative case study. Applying those methods, the study takes as units of analysis: Libya, Syria, and Yemen in the context of the Arab Spring’s revolutions. First, the study shows that it is possible to formulate a more detailed and accurate explanation of the civil wars through the usage of the three theories’ causal mechanisms. Second, the study reveals that the main association between the civil wars and the Arab Spring is achieved through the “demonstration effect” enabled by the technology of social media. Lastly, the study argues that the lack of productive cooperation between intelligence agencies and conflict scholars should be addressed in a way forward which can lead to a higher rate of civil war/armed conflict prevention, through the gradualist approach. |
| Supervisor | Matthijs Bogaards |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2015/mitkov_zlatin.pdf |
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