CEU eTD Collection (2015); Szabó, Márton Bence: Why is it hard to defeat an incumbent president in the United States?

CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2015
Author Szabó, Márton Bence
Title Why is it hard to defeat an incumbent president in the United States?
Summary This thesis tries to explain why incumbent presidents usually win elections in the United States again after their first tenure. I built a theoretical model in that voters cast their ballot based not only on the policy choices of the candidates but also based on their talent level. Primary elections have a crucial role in my model because they allow for the incumbent to choose more moderate policy and help him to win the general election. I also show in my model that the chances of the other party can depend on the number of their primary candidates.
Supervisor Szeidl, Ádám György
Department Economics MA
Full texthttps://www.etd.ceu.edu/2015/szabo_marton.pdf

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