CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2015
| Author | Yin, Weiwen |
|---|---|
| Title | Rooted in Poverty?: The Political Economy of Terrorism in Xinjiang |
| Summary | Abstract: Whether poverty is the cause of terrorism has remained one of the most debated puzzles in the study of political economy of terrorism. In Xinjiang, a multi-ethnic region in West China, it is widely believed that higher income level can decrease the likelihood of terrorism conducted by Uyghur separatists or extremists. However, the county-level data in the year of 2013 shows that better economic performance cannot work as is expected. Instead, empirical evidence indicates that income is positively associated with the probability of terrorist attacks, and the effect is statistically significant. An instrumental variable approach also supports that economic growth is hardly a cure to terrorism. A discussion on the causal mechanism between higher income and more probable terrorist incidents is provided after the empirical analysis. Both the grievance theory and opportunity structure theory are credited in the causal mechanism. Projects that aim at boosting local economic growth result in migrant flood, thus the local Uyghurs are disadvantaged in the employment market. Consequently, economic grievances are generated, along with preexisting political grievances as a result of exclusion from state power. The Uyghurs have a shared motivation to resist, but tight social control in the region constraints the form of resistance, in the sense that neither mass protests nor armed rebellion is feasible. Terrorist attacks that come with a lower cost become the preferable choice. In the end of this paper some alternative causal mechanisms are also discussed, and one of the alternative explanations for the occurrence of terrorist attacks that more prosperous places are more attractive to perpetrators is rejected. |
| Supervisor | Matthijs Bogaards |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2015/yin_weiwen.pdf |
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