CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2018
| Author | Chang, Xin |
|---|---|
| Title | The Likelihood of Collapse - Modern Chinese Economy and the Financial Crisis |
| Summary | This thesis aims to forecast the likelihood for Chinese economy to experience a currency crisis in the near future. The thesis discusses the development of the theoretical models (four generations) and several mainstream empirical models. In addition, the modified KLR Signal model is used for forecasting. The main modification is to use the cumulative density function to replace the “Signal” mechanism in the original KLR model. The estimation show that Chinese economy has a moderate likelihood to face a currency crisis and the Chinese government should focus on releasing the debt pressure in order to turn the condition better. |
| Supervisor | Matyas, Laszlo |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2018/chang_xin.pdf |
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