CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2018
| Author | Ibrahim, Yousef Anwar |
|---|---|
| Title | Fiscal Stimulus to Mitigate Economic Slowdown in China |
| Summary | The thesis aims at introducing a new try to evaluate the feasibility of the Chinese decision in launching fiscal stimulus package of 4 trillion Yuan in 2008-2009 on economic growth and debt positions of the central and local governments. The difficulties in accessing the necessary data led to use “Bucket Approach Model” to estimate the fiscal multipliers size’s impact and their persistency on provincial level, because of the beliefs that the national fiscal multiplier is neither sufficient to reflect the real impact of the package nor uncover the way of optimal distribution of the package’ sources among the provinces. The thesis tried to shed the light on the progress of economic and fiscal indicators development since 1978, the date of transition from central planned to market. Main hypothesis of this dissertation was that, the decision of conducting fiscal stimulus package in 2008-2009 was correct and entailed significant expansionary impact on economic growth without harming the fiscal stance of the central and local governments. But the findings showed partial agreement of this hypothesis, in short term, first two years of implementing the package, the growth rate increased significantly, and it is assumed according to our model that the package contributed in significant part of it, but on the medium and long term the positive impact of the package was limited and died out quickly, in addition to uprising the risk of local government off balance loans in the balance sheets of local governments. For this reason, ignoring the priority of starting adjustment fiscal policy could lead to serious threats of the economic and financial stability of the economic regime in China. |
| Supervisor | Bokros, Lajos |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2018/ibrahim_yousef.pdf |
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