CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2020
| Author | Gordon, Joel Adam |
|---|---|
| Title | Mechanisms of Offshore wind growth: Feasibility of 2030 targets in the North Seas Energy Cooperation |
| Summary | Offshore wind power has rapidly emerged as a competitive energy technology in proximity to Europe’s North Sea and Baltic Sea. Five frontrunners are driving growth, with the United Kingdom and Germany as lead markets, and Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands as smaller competitors. Together, these countries – all members of the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NESC) – are shifting the boundaries of the energy transition from land to sea. The NESC has set a 2030 target of 76GW, up from 22GW; however, the feasibility of reaching this ‘Milestone’ remains underexplored in the literature. To date, few studies have examined the mechanisms that drive offshore wind growth beyond early market formation. To bridge this knowledge gap, this thesis examines past deployment trends to model the parameters of future growth pathways, assessing the potential for exponential, logistic and/or logistic-linear growth in the NESC. Feasibility is assessed by assessing the drivers behind offshore wind growth: techno-economic, socio-technical, and political mechanisms, against the parameters of the model. The study finds that upscaling dynamics play a significant role in driving growth across the NESC, as Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs) cover increasingly larger areas, as they move farther from the shore and into deeper waters. Following newfound energy transition ambitions across the NESC, the study concludes that feasibility is High for reaching the current 2030 target, with a possibility of an overshoot should the United Kingdom realise surplus gigawatts of projects in its existing pipeline. |
| Supervisor | Aleh Cherp |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2020/gordon_joel.pdf |
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