CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2020
| Author | Hoppe, Janna |
|---|---|
| Title | Past the Peak? Trajectories of National Coal Fleets and Coal-fired Electricity Generation between 1960 and 2020 |
| Summary | Coal-fired electricity generation is one of the main causes of anthropogenic climate change. Nevertheless, the patterns and dynamics of coal fleet development have scarcely been investigated via quantitative, multi-country comparisons. This exploratory study integrated and analysed two datasets on electricity generating coal units worldwide to map the trajectories of 32 national coal fleets and 6 main coal consuming regions. These trajectories were evaluated through a novel framework combining theories on technology diffusion with notions of technology decline and abandonment. The principle findings were that, generally, units built since 1970 increased in size, adopted more efficient combustion technologies, and became increasingly likely to be privately owned. Geographically, the rate of units being constructed in Asia increased dramatically while simultaneously falling in Europe and North America. Overall, countries are in different phases of the coal technology lifecycle, exemplified by varying trajectories of total installed capacity and net annual capacity growth over the last 40-60 years. Contributing to the discussion on global coal decline, this study observed that total installed coal capacity for several countries demonstrates an inverse S-curve of technology diffusion with coal fleets shrinking slowly at first, but then more rapidly. Lastly, load factors (average utilization rates) were found be lower in contracting rather than growing coal fleets. These spatio-temporal patterns in coal capacity should be compared to trends in other coal-related sectors, such as heat provision or mining, to provide further insights into how the global phase-out of coal can be achieved. |
| Supervisor | Cherp, Aleh |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2020/hoppe_janna.pdf |
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