CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2021
| Author | Bitto, Virag |
|---|---|
| Title | Implications of the 14th IMF General Quota Reform on Fund Members Program Participation and Characteristics |
| Summary | Since the beginning of the 1990's social scientists, economists, International Relations academics came up with different theories discovering factors that determine IMF Program participation, loan sizes and conditionality, beyond the conventional measures articulated by the Fund. The current study aims to fill a niche in the literature by studying the effect of China's emerging role in the Fund on IMF Program participation outcomes, loan size and word/sentence counts of IMF programs documents referring to member countries. Its additional purpose is to estimate the effects of the most comprehensive Fund reform in the current century, the 14\textsuperscript{th} General Quota Reform on the same outcomes. I compiled a unique data set on recent yearly data, consisting of economic and political variables aligned with the major hypotheses in the literature, in order to test my main research questions. It covers the period of 2011 and 2019 and includes 2038 country-year pair observations. Cross-section models utilized the cross-section data by running logit and Poisson regressions in separate specifications. After that, in order to infer the effects of the quota changes during the Quota Reform, I estimated different Diff-in-diff models. This paper poses three primary recommendations. First, providing China with larger influence subsequently leads to larger independence in its actions. Carefully evaluating this could be a potentially important step from the Fund. Second, quota share alignment may follow for additional emerging economies as well in the future, based on changes in the World economy. The case of China may create a precedent for further emerging countries and a basis for potential negotiations. Being transparent and consequent about Fund policies is crucial in preparing for potential internal and interest conflicts. Third, parallel to liberalization in the World economy, the Fund's lender of last resort role might need to be adjusted. One step towards this might need to be the re-evaluation of demand for the types of financing. |
| Supervisor | Corduneanu-Huci, Cristina |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2021/bitto_virag.pdf |
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