CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2021
| Author | Tran, Linh |
|---|---|
| Title | Determinants of Foreign Policy Preference in the South China Sea Dispute: A Survey Experiment in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam |
| Summary | The South China Sea has been witnessing escalating tension between China and littoral Southeast Asian states in recent decades. Despite the undeniable salience of public concern in Southeast Asia about China’s increasingly assertive behaviors in the South China Sea, efforts to investigate external policy attitude in Southeast Asia remains limited. This study fills this gap by looking into the determinants of preference over foreign policy in the South China Sea conflict context. The study aims to determine how the perception of external threats and the presence of group cues influence foreign policy preference by employing a survey experiment. Respondents from three countries - Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam – are randomly exposed to hypothetical future scenarios about China’s aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea and the reaction of the Southeast Asian public. Due to an unwanted error, the survey results for the Filipinos are not available. The analysis for Malaysians and Vietnamese’ public opinion shows mixed and statistically insignificant results. Although the treatment effects are not statistically significant, the study’s findings suggest some patterns in preference for balancing strategies. The result of the study is expected to serve as a preliminary look into the drivers behind policy preference of the public in Southeast Asia, which paves the way to further research about the link between public opinion and foreign policy decisions. |
| Supervisor | Simonovits, Gábor |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2021/tran_linh.pdf |
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