CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2022
| Author | Chu, Jingxian |
|---|---|
| Title | China's "Three-Child" Policy and Welfare Reform --- Based on analysis of seventh census data |
| Summary | In November 2020, China conducted the world's largest census. The census includes the quantity, quality, structure, and distribution of the national population, which also provides an important basis for China's current social and economic development plan. The data of the seventh census show that some new changes have taken place in China's population in the past decade. It is mainly reflected in the following aspects: the growth rate of population gradually slows down; deep aging of population age structure; The proportion of labor force population began to decline. To solve the problem of population aging and low fertility, China has implemented the "three-child policy", which is not only a hot topic of general concern in all sectors of society but also a major issue related to the sustainable development of the economy, society, and family. Some scholars believe that China has entered the "low fertility trap", so they continue to call on the government to implement measures to promote fertility. Six years ago, the "two-child policy" was implemented, but the effect is not as expected. In 2021, China introduced the "three child policy" and supporting measures to create reproductive welfare for the people and increase the birth population. In this context, this paper analyzes the reasons why the "two-child policy" did not achieve population growth by using the data of the seventh population census. Then the paper explains the characteristics of the current population structure and further predicts the trend of the "three-child policy". In addition, by comparing the social background and implementation of fertility policy in East Asia, Nordic countries, and the United States, the paper analyzes the relationship between fertility policy and social culture, child-rearing, female employment, and gender equality. We found that, first, China's total fertility rate has reached an extremely low level in the past 20 years. Despite 10 years of implementation of the "two-child policy", China's low population growth has not improved. The article then breaks down the fertility data demographically and finds that the most influential factor is the delay in marriage among young women. In addition to the problems exposed by the maternity insurance system, the article argues that gender structure inequality and the incomplete welfare system are one of the reasons why women delay childbearing. Finally, the forecast data of the "three-child policy" shows that the impact of the birth policy is becoming less and less. Economic conditions, social development, and traditional culture all affect fertility rates in different regions. Therefore, it will be a huge challenge to improve the fertility rate through the three-child policy. By analyzing the data, comparing the policies of different countries, and exploring different social cultures, the paper finally gives policy suggestions for raising the fertility rate and improving the "three-child policy”. It argues that the birth policy should be formulated to construct compatible birth incentive policy groups, provide quality early childhood care services, and strengthen employment fairness and anti-discrimination protections for women. In addition, coordinating work and family policies; improving labor market structure and flexibility; strengthening subsidies and social security for low-income families; improving childcare policies and facilities supply is also a key measure to protect women's labor and reproductive rights. |
| Supervisor | Marc Kaufmann |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2022/chu_jingxian.pdf |
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