CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2022
| Author | Masterova, Elena |
|---|---|
| Title | Alterations of the Blue Nile hydrological regime, and ability to meet ecosystem requirements expressed through environmental flow |
| Summary | Countries of the Blue Nile basin depend on the river in many aspects of life. Transportation needs, agriculture, drinking water provision, livestock support—the river has many functions, nurturing human wellbeing for centuries. However, due to rapid post-industrial development, the water regime has undergone major changes. Extensive infrastructure development and climate change have already led to significant changes in the hydrological regime. Modified flow regimes pose risks for both water management and the ecosystems. Besides meeting human needs, there must be enough water left in the river to support healthy ecosystem functioning and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This is expressed through the concept of environmental flow. The purpose of this study is to identify current and anticipated changes in the Blue Nile flow regime due to infrastructure development and climate change, compare anticipated flow with environmental flow, and assess the impact on ecosystem functioning. In order to calculate flow projections at five selected sites, the PyWR model was used. This study has found that environmental flow requirements would not be met under most scenarios, both during the wet and dry seasons. In some scenarios, flow fluctuations would be minimized because of commissioning dams. Seasonality patterns of flow are also expected to be significantly shifted. Overall changes in volume and flow pattern shifts would inevitably lead to ecological problems, such as habitat disturbance, loss of biodiversity, and failure to provide ecosystem services. Consequently, socio-economic activities would be at risk, affecting major sectors such as agriculture and human wellbeing. |
| Supervisor | Pintér, László |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2022/masterova_elena.pdf |
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