CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2023
| Author | Alpano, Jonathan Roque |
|---|---|
| Title | Feasibility of the energy transition in Australia: A look into the 2022 Integrated System Plan???s variable renewable energy trajectories through the lens of feasibility spaces |
| Summary | Fossil fuels have played an integral role in the development of modern societies, serving as a cornerstone for modern industrialization and energy generation. However, adopting a fossil-fuel dominated energy system has led to unprecedented rates of greenhouse gas emissions, contributing significantly to acute anthropogenic climate change. The energy transition away from fossil fuels has gained paramount importance as a way of addressing these challenges. Variable renewable energy (VRE) is central to Australia’s decarbonisation agenda, prioritising scaling up solar and wind power to meet the increasing demand for energy currently satisfied by a market that leverages the country’s abundant fossil fuel resources. This study aimed to examine Australia’s trajectories for the development of utility-scale VRE capacity to 2050, as outlined in the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)’s 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP) for the National Electricity Market (NEM), and implement a feasibility space framework to comparatively assess and analyse these trends. The principle findings were that utility-scale wind power capacity in Australia will experience an almost threefold accelerated growth rate in capacity to 2050 relative to the rates during the period from 2013 to 2022. While this trajectory appears ambitious, the optimal wind resources in the country, partnered with the current established and planned political frameworks and incentive mechanisms for key energy players makes it feasible in all likelihood. Utility-scale solar trajectories are on track with historical trends in the country, which indicates feasibility, however, allows for the possibility of setting more ambitious solar targets. Compared with the reference case countries, India, Germany and Italy, the historic trends are relatively on track, however, the level of VRE capacity by 2050 fall substantially behind the targeted capacities for India and Germany already by 2030. Various aspects of the Australian energy transition are also outlined that need to be overcome by political will and skill in order to achieve the ISP trajectories easily, and be on par with the global energy landscape. |
| Supervisor | Cherp, Aleh |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2023/alpano_jonathan.pdf |
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