CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2023
| Author | Davila Ronquillo, Diana Michelle |
|---|---|
| Title | Socioeconomic Modelling of Deforestation for the Assessment of National Development Plans in Ecuador |
| Summary | The present research seeks to evaluate how national development plans influence changes in forest cover by altering the underlying and immediate socioeconomic factors that may impact forest cover in Ecuador. This thesis explores the strength and direction of the relationships between socioeconomic factors and forest areas from 1990 to 2020. Additionally, it investigates causation between underlying and immediate factors of deforestation based on the Angelsen and Kaimowitz 1999 theoretical framework. Correlation, Multiple Linear regression, and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression are used in this research to create a model that can predict deforestation as a function of socioeconomic factors. Techniques of machine learning are applied for the construction of the model. As the main results, the statistical analysis shows that socioeconomic factors related to the agriculture industry significantly influence deforestation. However, it is essential to acknowledge the limitations of this analysis due to data limitations, potential biases and assumptions made during the investigation. The goals of the National Development Plans (NDPs) heavily rely on the agriculture sector for increased economic growth, employment and development. However, the current approach to action does not incorporate effective environmental policies. As a result, if certain NDP's goals and demographic trends continue, the country will be lost around 1158.11 km2. |
| Supervisor | Schaffartzik, Anke |
| Department | Environment Sciences and Policy MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2023/davila_diana.pdf |
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