CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2023
| Author | Toktogulova, Aidai |
|---|---|
| Title | Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: The J-Curve of Kyrgyzstan |
| Summary | This study explores the relationship between real effective exchange rate and trade balance in the Kyrgyz Republic and investigates the J-curve phenomenon in overall and bilateral trade between Kyrgyzstan and its key trading partners: Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Turkiye. This research uses quarterly data for the period 2001–2022. Export and import flows (including bilateral), real domestic GDP, real effective exchange rate, and real bilateral exchange rates are incorporated in the models. An ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) was used to analyze the long-run relationship between variables. The short run impacts and associated J-curve effect are investigated. No J-curve phenomena is detected. |
| Supervisor | Julius Horvath |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2023/toktogulova_aidai.pdf |
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