CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2024
| Author | Mikhasev, Timofei |
|---|---|
| Title | Incumbency (dis)advantage in Latin America? Analysis of Presidential and Legislative Elections in the 21st Century |
| Summary | The incumbent advantage, a phenomenon regularly observed in established democracies and Western countries, is not as evident in young democracies with developing economies. This thesis analyzes whether an incumbent advantage exists in Latin American democracies during presidential and parliamentary elections in the 21st century. The regression analysis results indicate that the advantage is significantly smaller in presidential elections than in parliamentary ones. Additionally, the study tests hypotheses explaining incumbent (dis)advantages in different contexts. The key empirical findings are that clientelism and less developed liberal democratic institutions are advantages for the incumbent, whereas low levels of equality and insufficient effectiveness in office are disadvantages. Furthermore, the main explanatory variables from the literature on the impact of economic growth and corruption proved to be ambiguous. Moreover, a relationship was also found between a reduction in violence levels, a religious freedom and the expansion of women's rights and an advantage for the incumbent. The study also includes mini case studies explaining the causal links for clientelism, liberal democratic institutions, egalitarianism, and incumbent (dis)advantage. |
| Supervisor | Matthijs Bogaards |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2024/mikhasev_timofei.pdf |
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