CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Ijitimehin, Henry |
|---|---|
| Title | The Welfare and Production Effects of Border Restriction: Evidence from Nigeria's 2019 Border Closure |
| Summary | This study investigates the welfare and production effects of Nigeria's 2019 land border closure policy through both theoretical and empirical analyses. Using classical trade theories such as the partial equilibrium framework of Viner (1937), optimum tariff models by Johnson (1951), and modern extensions incorporating network effects, the study explores how border closures influence domestic markets. Empirically, the study employs monthly price data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and annual production data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), covering key agricultural products most affected by the closure. A combination of paired t-tests, multiple regression models, and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis is applied to estimate the policy's effects on food prices and domestic agricultural production. The results reveal a substantial and statistically significant increase in domestic food prices following the border closure, while evidence of significant production increases remains weak and statistically insignificant. These findings summmmggest that while protectionist policies can restrict imports and temporarily shield domestic industries, their effectiveness in stimulating domestic production is limited without complementary investments, institutional reforms, and capacity-building measures. The study contributes to the broader literature on trade barriers in developing economies by providing empirical insights into the complex trade-offs between consumer welfare and domestic production under protectionist trade regimes. |
| Supervisor | Mats Koster |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/ijitimehin_henry.pdf |
Visit the CEU Library.
© 2007-2025, Central European University