CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Kolev, Nikolay |
|---|---|
| Title | The Volatility Loop: Explaining Extraordinary Electoral Instability |
| Summary | The thesis investigates extraordinary electoral volatility in Bulgaria from 2021 to 2024, concentrating on the electoral shifts between 2023 and 2024. Emphasizing rapid shifts in voter preferences and frequent emergence of new political actors, the thesis presents a novel theory: the dynamic “volatility loop” to explain persistent electoral instability. Accordingly, the thesis demonstrates how structural grievances such as governance inefficiency, widespread corruption, and economic instability trigger initial voter dissatisfaction. The openness of the political system, combined with relatively weak partisan attachments, then further amplifies volatility by enabling the emergence and rapid rise of new, populist and anti-establishment parties. Yet, these new political entities often fail to deliver effective governance, leading to more disillusionment and voter punishment that results in vote switching, hence perpetuating the voter volatility loop. Two mechanisms seem capable of temporarily stabilizing electoral volatility: voter’s transient return to ‘traditional’, established parties, or increased voter abstention. However, both of these mechanisms have the potential to exacerbate political alienation and thus democratic erosion. Uncovering the cyclical and structural nature of electoral volatility in Bulgaria, this thesis highlights the necessity of addressing long-term institutional weaknesses and socio-economic grievances to foster lasting political instability and democratic resilience in the entire CEE region. |
| Supervisor | Sata, Robert |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/kolev_nikolay.pdf |
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