CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Masiakin, Ihor |
|---|---|
| Title | Drones And Dependency: Strategic Alignment, Tactical Hedging, And Asymmetric Interdependence In China Russia Military Cooperation |
| Summary | Authoritarian collaboration has emerged as an important feature of the international security environment, yet there is little substantial scholarship analyzing the structures of such arrangements. This thesis examines the development of Sino-Russian military-technical cooperation in the UAV/drone industry, between 2014 and 2024. Focusing on the issue of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) as a realm of dual-use technology development, sanctions evasion, and battlefield ingenuity, it sets out to explain the underlying causal logics of the intensifying engagement of the UAS market between China and Russia, as an authoritarian part of the international community. To resolve this puzzle, this study tested several hypotheses: aligned strategic objectives, transactional hedging, and the asymmetrical dependency of Russia on China. Through a detailed, theory-driven case study and process-tracing, the thesis frames a theoretical approach to analyzing militarized interdependence with respect to both state-owned and private defense industrial bases as well as militaries. By synthesizing aspects of asymmetric alliance theory, dependency theory, the literatures on hedging, and the concept of friendshoring, this thesis applies these theories and concepts within five key market episodes of drone collaboration: procurement deals, capabilities joint exercises and wartime reconfigurations of the supply chain. Empirical evidence is triangulated via customs filings, satellite imagery, open-source intelligence, and think-tank analyses. The findings suggest that while momentary factors of threat convergence and strategic opportunism characterize phases of cooperation, the evidence suggests that it is structural asymmetry, primarily attributed to Russia's deepening reliance on a growing supply chain of China UAV components, financing, and UAV assembly capability, that will dictate the long-term trajectory of their interdependent relationship. This thesis contributes to alliance theory and the study of weaponized interdependence in terms of how coercive leverage is embedded not through austerity but through capacity-controlling chokepoints associated with supply chains, licensing regimes, and integration of battlefield systems. |
| Supervisor | Inna Melnykovska |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/masiakin_ihor.pdf |
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