CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Palko, Eniko |
|---|---|
| Title | Python-Based Recursive Climate Damage Simulator |
| Summary | The goal of this project is to develop a usable, extendable, minimal quantitative tool to simulate Integrated Assessment Models, and economic impact through a short feedback loop. The modeling builds upon the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework, with a climate change damage estimator function based on top-down estimates. It uses Kaya Identity to estimate emissions from GDP, then Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE) is applied to calculate temperature rises. Damages projected by the functional form are applied iteratively to adjust GDP in each year. Furthermore, to assess uncertainty in various parameters, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted. Model outputs include projections of GDP, emissions, temperature, and economic damages through 2100. Results show that climate damages can reduce global GDP by several trillion dollars by the end of the century, and that temperature pathways significantly vary depending on the chosen assumptions. While the model is simplified for clarity, it introduces insight into mitigation factors of climate change, and can be extended for further complexity. |
| Supervisor | Eduardo Ariño de la Rubia |
| Department | Economics MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/palko_eniko.pdf |
Visit the CEU Library.
© 2007-2025, Central European University