CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Poupa, Michel |
|---|---|
| Title | Scaled and Icy: Evolution of the International Arms Trade |
| Summary | With increasing global tensions and a rearmament of the planet, international arms trade is more prevalent than ever. Using arms transfer records from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database, this study analyses the evolution of the international arms trade and its driving factors from 1955 up until 2024 – a period that has not yet been studied. To this purpose, statistical network models and traditional social network analysis methods are used, aiming at evaluating the structural and geopolitical similarity between today's network and its Cold War counterpart. While certain aspects of the current network, such as the emergence of a Sino-Russian sphere of influence and a persistent oligopolistic structure, echo Cold War dynamics, the increased network density reduces the likelihood of a strictly bipolar system. The findings also reveal that the Cold War arms trade was far from static and evolved greatly, making direct comparisons with its contemporary counterpart more difficult. Finally, the modelling of the arms trade showed the profound impact Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had on the network, with large shifts in both endogenous and exogenous variables' contributions. |
| Supervisor | Omodei, Elisa |
| Department | Network Science MSc |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/poupa_michel.pdf |
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