CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Schumacher, Simon Konstantin |
|---|---|
| Title | Is it the Economy, Stupid?: The Short-Term Economic Roots of Right-Wing Populism in German Municipalities |
| Summary | This thesis examines the extent to which short-term economic downturns, specifically rising unemployment and income stagnation, explain support for right-wing populist parties (RWPPs) at the municipal level in Germany. While existing research has extensively linked long-term regional decline to RWPP support, the role of acute, short-term economic changes remains comparatively underexplored, particularly in the German context. To address this gap, the study applies a communotropic economic voting framework, which posits that voters evaluate economic conditions through the lens of their local community. Using a multi-election dataset covering federal elections in 2013, 2017, and 2021, the analysis reveals that short-term regional increases in unemployment and income stagnation are significantly associated with AfD support, but only after the party’s rightward ideological shift in 2015. These effects are particularly strong during periods of broader economic slowdown, such as the COVID-19 era. In contrast, the hypothesized sensitivity of middle-income municipalities to income stagnation is not supported. The findings underscore the need to account for localized, short-term economic anxieties in explaining contemporary RWPP support and highlight the evolving role of the AfD as a political vehicle for economically disaffected regions. |
| Supervisor | Daniel Bochsler |
| Department | Undergraduate Studies BA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/schumacher_simon.pdf |
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