CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Toptas, Aysenaz |
|---|---|
| Title | Student Demobilization in Electoral Autocracies: A Cross-Case Analysis |
| Summary | This thesis investigates the conditions that lead to the demobilization of student protest campaigns in electoral authoritarian (EA) regimes. While much of the existing literature focuses on the emergence and escalation of protest, this study shifts attention to the less explored phenomenon of demobilization. Drawing on an original protest episode dataset constructed from ACLED event-level data (2020–2024), the thesis develops a demobilization index based on episode frequency, average length, and intensity. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the study examines 27 EA regimes to identify causal pathways associated with demobilization. The analysis reveals that no single condition is necessary for demobilization, challenging assumptions about the centrality of repression. Instead, the parsimonious solution identifies two sufficient paths to demobilization: heavy repression combined with unified opposition (HR*~FO), and fragmented opposition combined with low higher education autonomy and absence of pro-government countermobilization (~FO*HEO*~CM). These results suggest that protest demobilization is not always coerced, but can stem from institutional and structural vulnerabilities. The findings contribute to scholarship on authoritarian resilience, student activism, and protest outcomes, and underscore the value of analyzing demobilization through disaggregated, episodic data and set-theoretic methods. |
| Supervisor | Schneider, Carsten Q. |
| Department | Political Science MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/toptas_aysenaz.pdf |
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