CEU eTD Collection (2025); Zimmerman, Maayan: From Gas to Influence: The Future of Qatar's Economy and Power in a Post-Hydrocarbon World

CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
Author Zimmerman, Maayan
Title From Gas to Influence: The Future of Qatar's Economy and Power in a Post-Hydrocarbon World
Summary Qatar, a small state in the Gulf region with vast gas reserves, has leveraged its natural resources to strengthen its image and gain regional and international influence. Yet, its economic model faces growing pressure from the projected long-term decline in oil and gas demand, particularly under the net zero emission scenario. This casts doubt on Qatar’s capacity to maintain its international position in decades to follow.
This thesis aims to assess Qatar’s financial stability in light of the global green transition and considers how these shifts may alter its international role. So far, no apparent attempts have been made to show how these economic transformations may affect its geopolitical stance. To address this gap, the thesis draws on rentier state theory, developmental state models, and frameworks of small-state power.
Using empirical evidence, this thesis argues that Qatar is likely to face severe economic challenges within the next two decades. It demonstrates that the country’s Sovereign Wealth Fund will be unable to fully offset the decline of its energy sector. Moreover, given current trajectories, Qatar’s domestic economy is not on course to develop into a substantial alternative source of revenue. The thesis concludes by showing the implications of these developments for Qatar’s international relations.
Supervisor Labelle, Michael
Department Undergraduate Studies BA
Full texthttps://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/zimmerman_maayan.pdf

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