CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2025
| Author | Zoghi Roudsari, Behnam |
|---|---|
| Title | The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Iran's Export Composition: Evidence from a Gravity Model, 1995-2019 |
| Summary | This study investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran’s export composition, using a traditional gravity model with a particular focus on sectoral heterogeneous effects of the sanctions between 1995 and 2019. Utilizing disaggregated country-product level trade data from the BACI dataset, along with a continuous sanctions intensity index developed by Laudati and Pesaran (2023), the analysis assesses contemporaneous and lagged effects of sanctions using fixed and random effects panel regression models. The findings show that while the immediate impact of sanctions is limited, lagged effects—especially in the second and third years—are both significant and substantial, suggesting a delayed but powerful disruption to Iran’s export. Notably, the manufacturing sector exhibits more rapid recovery relative to total exports and non-oil exports, indicating greater resilience. The results also point to a broader diversification trend in Iran’s export composition, potentially driven by sanctions-induced structural adjustment. Through their heterogeneous effects on different sectors of Iran’s economy over time, sanctions have contributed to a shift away from oil dependence and toward a more diversified export structure. This research contributes to the growing literature on sanctions by demonstrating how economies under prolonged sanctions can develop adaptive capacities. Moving beyond previous studies that focus primarily on trade volumes, it shows that sanctions can fundamentally reshape the structure of trade itself. |
| Supervisor | Sahabeh Tabrizy, Saleh; and Rátfai, Attila |
| Department | Economics MA |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/zoghi_behnam.pdf |
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