CEU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2026
| Author | Veljanov, Zdravko |
|---|---|
| Title | Chasing Shadows: Comparative Dynamics of Autocratization in post-Communist Countries |
| Summary | The ongoing autocratization wave has shown us the incremental decline and hollowing out of democratic qualities from within. The thesis explores the mechanisms by which autocratic leaders dismantle democratic qualities without dismantling their facade. The sequential multi-method setup of cross-case analysis using QCA to detect conditions present at the onset of the autocratization episode, and the in-depth process tracing of the two case studies that reveal the mechanisms that intensify the autocratization sequence. The fuzzy-set QCA maps the pathways, while the computational text and network analysis trace the processes. This approach illustrates how onset conditions and intensification mechanisms operate distinctly, yet together in regime transformation periods. The QCA analysis of 28 autocratization episodes across 21 post-Communist countries demonstrates the complexity of autocratization episodes and establishes three findings. There are multiple and distinct configurations that lead to onset of autocratization episode. The equifinality also illustrated that no single condition is necessary or sufficient to produce the outcome on its own. Subsequently, different combination of institutional weakness, polarization, corruption, regional trends, and political stability initiate an autocratization episode in different contexts. The analysis shows the three distinct pathways to autocratization: democratic hijacking of the incumbent party, institutional subversion, and crisis-driven leadership. The case studies leverage the temporal distinction from the onset of the episode and trace how the autocratic dyad operates during extended episodes. The two typical case studies of North Macedonia and Serbia entered the autocratization period with high polarization and political instability stemming from unresolved bilateral conflicts. The case studies trace the feedback loop of the autocratic dyad that reinforces polarization and corruption as democratic qualities within the countries deteriorate. In North Macedonia, Nikola Gruevski’s government channeled public resources into the "Skopje 2014" project, a massive construction project that reimagined the city in his nationalist and ideological vision. The dissertation uses quantitative text analysis of speeches and statements, such as (il)liberal dictionary and word-embeddings to demonstrate how the implementation of illiberal rhetoric has fueled polarization and shielded corrupt practices. The wire-tapping revelations in 2015 and sustained international pressure disrupted the feedback loop and interrupted the autocratization episode. Serbia’s autocratization episode followed a similar path, with the flagship project "Belgrade Waterfront" and major reconstruction projects throughout the country carried out through opaque procedures that helped fuel corruption practices. The computational text analysis of prominent SNS members illustrates the progression of illiberal rhetoric, weaponized as a tool of the regime, and instrumentalized for regime legitimization. The dissertation advances three contributions. The autocratic dyad bridges the literature on hybrid regimes’ autocratization, polarization, and corruption by illustrating how it can intensify once an autocratization episode begins. The cross-case analysis demonstrates the advantages of QCA in identifying multiple pathways through different configurations that cause the onset of an episode. Empirically, operationalizing political speeches and statements using dictionary-based and machine-learning tools, in combination with networked approaches, allows us to track the autocratization sequence, with potential applicability to other similar autocratization episodes. |
| Supervisor | Bozóki, András |
| Department | Political Science PhD |
| Full text | https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2026/veljanov_zdravko.pdf |
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